Bayes’ theorem -without the confusing symbols

Bayes’ theorem is so cool because it allows you to make predictions based on observations.

It is often taught, however, as a kind of alphabet soup of symbols and weird language (‘prior and posterior probabilities’) so that even very smart people fail to get it…and certainly can’t apply it for themselves.

In this diagram, the whole idea is explained as simply as possible (click on the image below for a bigger version):

 

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